South Africa is preparing for the possibility of a severe drought as a potentially very strong El Niño weather pattern threatens to bring hotter temperatures and below-average rainfall during the 2026/27 summer season. Experts warn that prolonged dry conditions could put pressure on agricultural production, increase food prices and worsen poverty across Southern Africa, particularly among low-income households already struggling with the rising cost of living.
According to the South African Weather Service (SAWS), seasonal forecasts point to warmer and drier conditions across much of the country. Although drought is not guaranteed, the outlook has raised concerns about the impact on crop production, water availability and the livelihoods of farming communities.
How The Drought Could Affect Food Prices And Poverty
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon involving warmer-than-usual ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, which can influence rainfall patterns around the world. In Southern Africa, strong El Niño events are often associated with reduced rainfall and increased temperatures, raising the risk of drought.
If rainfall shortages damage the coming harvest, farmers could face lower crop yields, reduced grazing for livestock and higher production costs. These challenges could eventually push up prices for staple foods such as maize and other everyday essentials. For poorer households, which spend a significant portion of their income on food, even modest price increases could make it harder to afford nutritious meals.
Agricultural losses could also affect farmworkers, small-scale farmers and rural communities that depend on seasonal employment. If production declines across several countries in the region, pressure on food supplies and cross-border trade could further complicate efforts to keep prices affordable.
Main image: Global Issues
