At last week’s SA Auto Week in Gqeberha, hosted by Naamsa – the automotive industry’s premier annual showcase – a clear and urgent message emerged: South Africa’s auto sector is under mounting pressure and must take decisive action to ensure its survival.
A key theme dominating discussions was the surging presence of Chinese-made vehicles in the local market. Chinese automotive brands now command 15% of South Africa’s overall vehicle market, and in September 2025 alone, they accounted for 20% of all passenger vehicle sales. This rapid growth is placing substantial pressure on domestic manufacturers who are already navigating a complex and challenging economic landscape.
This is not a uniquely South African challenge. Globally, several governments have introduced tariff measures to counteract Chinese state manufacturing subsidies, which remain largely opaque. Without similar protective mechanisms, South African automakers are at a distinct disadvantage.
Adding to external competition is South Africa’s subdued economic growth, which continues to weigh heavily on consumer spending. While national vehicle sales have recovered to near pre-COVID-19 levels, they still fall well short of international trends. The recent uptick in sales has been partly attributed to the R38 billion withdrawn from retirement savings through the new “two-pot” system. Analysts predict a further temporary boost when the next withdrawal window opens in March 2026.
However, the most pressing long-term threat is not competition or consumer demand—it’s the global shift towards zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). Europe and the United Kingdom, which together account for more than 70% of South Africa’s vehicle exports, have committed to ending the sale of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2035.
Without a clearly defined national policy to support the transition to new-energy vehicles (NEVs), South Africa risks losing access to these vital export markets. The consequences would be severe: potential factory closures, large-scale job losses, and a rapid erosion of the country’s manufacturing competitiveness.
Looking elsewhere for export growth presents limited opportunities. While Africa’s population is expanding, the continent’s new vehicle market remains modest—just 1.1 million units annually, with South Africa representing just over half of that. Moreover, emerging automotive hubs like Morocco, Egypt, and Ghana are scaling up their own manufacturing sectors, increasingly positioning themselves as future competitors rather than alternative markets.
The situation has become critical. If South Africa fails to provide a clear, timely policy roadmap for the transition to electric and low-emission vehicles, global original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) may begin to shift production to more forward-looking regions.
“The time for action is now – not next month, not next week,” warned multiple speakers at the event.
The industry’s message to government is clear: without urgent intervention, South Africa’s automotive sector—one of the country’s most vital industrial employers—faces a future of declining relevance in a rapidly evolving global market.
Main Image: Joburg ETC
